The now defunct Policy Analyis Market http://www.policyanalysismarket.org
site - archived!
There is another and more extensive archive, with some amazing Middle
East map-like backround images here:
Here is something profoundly stupid - a futures market on
terrorism. This archive is an attempt to prevent the US
government erasing its own
read this: link/
- what I wrote
to the Link
mailing list about this, and another stupid thing from the 1950s and
60s - a rocket powered by pooping out hundreds of atomic bombs which
explode beneath it. By about 11PM US east coast summer time, the
policyanalysismarket.org server had been disconnected, and the above
page has the traceroute and ping attempt to it as well.
Below are pages as I found them either from the now defunct http://www.policyanalysismarket.org
site, or Google's cache.
Search Google news and Web for "Policy Analysis Market":
The Slashot discussion is lively and includes mentions of aspects of
the site I have not been able to archive:
- Robin Whittle firstname.lastname@example.org 30 July
2003 Melbourne Australia
To my main First
world's longest Sliiiiiiiiinky
various privacy things, old corsetry advertisements, photos from trance
techno dance parties in the forest, a bit on astrophysics and
cosmology, Yum-Yum Gourmet Breakfast Toast etc. A general Show
Various other links
for this affair
5 August 2003 story by Andrew Orlowski on the Extropians - and Dr Robin
D. Hanson http://hanson.gmu.edu/home.html
who says is doesn't sign on to Extropianism and who was apparently
involved in the ideas behind Policy Analysis Market. Some idea
might be gained as to the state of mind of at least one economics
professor by what Dr Hanson writes at http://hanson.gmu.edu/wildideas.html
: There's a five percent
chance I live in a "future" computer simulation as I write this.
If we allowed complete freedom of contract, law could be privatized, to
our common benefit. There's more . . . http://hanson.gmu.edu/altinst.html
Vote on values, but bet on
beliefs. Allow Private Law, Subject to Anti-Trust
Regulation. Have your doctor lose a lot of money when you
die. Give criminals control of private law enforcement.
Pick a jury at random to decide an election. Reform academia with
betting markets on science claims. Form Eco-consensus via
long-term commodity futures markets. Estimate quality of life
from willingness to move to a standardized island. Have
journalists give numerical confidence estimates in their science
||Main page - but when I found it,
the link lead to a non-existent page.
|Details of how it would
||Links to DARPA http://www.darpa.mil and http://www.eiu.com : "The Economist
Intelligence Unit is the
business information arm of The Economist Group, publisher of The
Economist. Through a global network of over 500 analysts, it
continuously assesses and forecasts political, economic and business
conditions in 195 countries."
||1,000 traders starting in
October 2003, expanding to 10,000 in January 2004.
||This was a pop-up page from
pam_concept.htm - quarterly contracts : "
- Quarterly contracts based on data indices
track economic health, civil stability, military disposition, and U.S.
economic & military involvement in Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel,
Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey
- Quarterly contracts that track global
and conflict indicators
- Specific possible events (e.g., U.S.
of Palestine in the first quarter of 2005)"
|The Age's report of 30 July 2003
Australian time, prior to the US government deciding against the site -
from the Los Angeles Times.
|Washington Post reporting the
project had been killed. This was the first one found by Google's
news. A few hours later there were hundreds of news articles
about this matter.